PROJECT: CRIME AND THE 2026 ELECTION
PLEASE SHARE THIS PUBLIC DOCUMENT
IS SOUTH AFRICA ENTERING A HIGH-RISK PERIOD?
South Africa is approaching the 2026 Local Government Elections, scheduled for 4 November 2026.
While elections are an essential part of democracy, election periods can also create an environment in which existing criminal, political and social tensions become more pronounced.
The question is therefore not simply whether crime will increase before the election.
The more important question is whether the nature, location and motivation of certain crimes
may change as political competition intensifies.
CRIME DOES NOT NECESSARILY INCREASE — BUT THE RISK PROFILE CAN CHANGE
The latest SAPS crime statistics do not support a blanket statement that all crime is increasing.
During the January–March 2026 reporting period, South Africa recorded decreases in several major crime categories, including murder.
However, the absolute level of violent crime remains exceptionally high.
This distinction is important.
An election does not automatically cause ordinary criminals to become more active.
Criminal networks, hijackers, robbers, fraudsters, gangs and other offenders generally continue operating according to their established patterns.
What can change is the security environment surrounding existing criminal activity.
POLITICAL LEADERS AND CANDIDATES ARE ALREADY BEING TARGETED:
This is no longer merely a theoretical concern.
South Africa has a documented history of political killings, particularly at local-government level.
More importantly, the months leading up to the 2026 elections have already produced a series of killings involving councillors, candidates and politically affiliated individuals.
In June 2026, the South African Local Government Association (SALGA) called for stronger measures to curb political violence and killings ahead of the local government elections.
During August, Cabinet also condemned the killing of councillors ahead of the elections and reported that at least five councillors had been killed across the country.
Government specifically called on South Africans to reject political intolerance, intimidation and violence.
The situation has since become even more concerning.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the Inkatha Freedom Party reported in early September that two of its councillor candidates had been murdered in separate incidents within seven days.
The party has called for the KwaZulu-Natal Political Killings Task Team to investigate the cases and determine whether political motives were involved.
One of those candidates, Khethelo Mdluli, was reportedly shot outside his home in Gingindlovu and later died in hospital.
He was a serving councillor and an IFP candidate for the forthcoming elections.
These incidents are particularly significant because they occurred only weeks before the local government elections.
However, SSS stresses an important distinction:
A killing occurring during an election period is not automatically a political assassination.
The motive must be established through investigation and evidence. Personal disputes, criminal activity, business interests and political motives can overlap, and investigators must consider every reasonable possibility.
Nevertheless, the concentration of attacks involving political representatives and candidates is sufficiently serious to warrant heightened security awareness.
INTIMIDATION IS ALSO A WARNING SIGN:
Political violence does not begin with a shooting.
It can begin with intimidation.
Candidates, political activists and supporters can face threats, assault, harassment, obstruction of campaigning and attempts to prevent political organisations from operating in particular communities.
For example, IFP volunteers putting up election posters in KwaZulu-Natal were reportedly assaulted, with allegations that the attackers did not want the IFP campaigning in the area.
Police were investigating the assault.
This type of conduct is important because intimidation can create an environment in which more serious violence becomes possible.
A candidate who is prevented from campaigning because of threats is already being denied a fundamental democratic right.
KWAZULU-NATAL REQUIRES PARTICULAR ATTENTION:
KwaZulu-Natal has historically experienced some of South Africa's most serious political violence.
Recent events have again raised concerns about the safety of councillors and candidates in the province. According to reporting citing KwaZulu-Natal Premier Thami Ntuli, 18 councillors have been assassinated in the province since 2021.
The provincial government is now preparing a political peace summit involving political parties and the Electoral Commission ahead of the November elections. The initiative comes amid reports of intimidation and deadly attacks targeting councillor candidates.
This does not mean that KwaZulu-Natal is destined for widespread election violence.
It does mean that the province has a demonstrated history and a current risk profile that requires particular attention.
THE NUMBERS ARE SIGNIFICANT:
The broader pattern is also concerning.
ACLED has recorded 397 incidents of violence targeting local administrators in South Africa since 2018, including 200 attacks against local officials that resulted in 166 fatalities among officials and other people caught up in or targeted by the violence.
These figures demonstrate that violence against local political and administrative figures is not an isolated phenomenon.
It is an established security problem.
CRIMINAL NETWORKS CAN EXPLOIT POLITICAL INSTABILITY:
Election periods can also create opportunities for organised criminal structures.
Where there are existing disputes surrounding construction, municipal contracts, informal businesses, illegal mining, extortion, tenders or local political control, heightened political competition can create additional instability.
Political power and criminal interests can sometimes intersect where access to municipal resources, contracts or economic opportunities is at stake.
This is why political violence should not automatically be analysed as purely ideological.
In some cases, the underlying motivation may be access to money, influence, contracts or power.
PROTESTS AND PUBLIC UNREST:
Another potential risk is the escalation of protests.
South Africa has a long history of community protests relating to service delivery, unemployment, housing, municipal governance and other grievances.
During an election period, legitimate public dissatisfaction can become more politically charged.
There is also a risk that misinformation, inflammatory political rhetoric or manipulated social-media content could contribute to fear, anger and confrontation.
Public frustration is not itself criminal.
Violence, intimidation, vandalism and vigilantism are.
POLITICAL RHETORIC AND MISINFORMATION:
Election periods inevitably produce strong political rhetoric.
However, security concerns arise when rhetoric crosses the line into threats, intimidation or the deliberate spreading of false information designed to provoke violence.
Members of the public should therefore be particularly cautious about information received through WhatsApp, Facebook, TikTok and other social-media platforms.
A photograph or video does not necessarily show where or when an incident occurred. A voice recording may be manipulated. A message claiming that an area is under attack may be completely false.
Verify before sharing.
False information during a volatile period can cause unnecessary panic, trigger vigilantism and divert police resources away from genuine emergencies.
WHAT SHOULD THE PUBLIC DO?
South Africans should not become unnecessarily fearful because of the approaching election.
They should, however, become more security-conscious.
Members of the public should:
Know the crime and protest hotspots in their immediate area.
Monitor reliable local security and law-enforcement information.
Avoid unnecessary confrontation at protests or political gatherings.
Never become involved in vigilantism.
Be cautious when travelling through unfamiliar areas.
Avoid displaying valuables unnecessarily.
Report suspicious activity to the appropriate authorities.
Verify information before forwarding it.
Businesses should review their security and emergency procedures.
Political organisations and candidates should report threats and intimidation immediately rather than attempting to deal with them privately.
Motorists should remain particularly vigilant around known hijacking and robbery hotspots, regardless of political developments.
South Africa's democratic process must be protected.
The fact that the country is approaching an election should not create unnecessary fear or suspicion among ordinary citizens. Millions of South Africans will participate peacefully in the democratic process.
However, criminals, organised criminal networks and individuals seeking political or economic power
can exploit periods of uncertainty, tension and instability.
The recent killings of councillors and candidates demonstrate that this risk cannot simply be dismissed.
SSS WARNING:
Specialised Security Services (SSS) believes that the period leading up to
the 4 November 2026 Local Government Elections warrants increased situational awareness.
SSS is not predicting a nationwide crime explosion.
It is, however, warning that certain forms of crime and violence — particularly political intimidation, targeted attacks, political killings, protest-related violence, organised crime and opportunistic criminality — may become more prominent in specific areas.
The recent murders of political candidates and councillors demonstrate that the threat already exists.
The correct response is not panic.
It is preparedness, vigilance, intelligence gathering, responsible reporting and effective law enforcement.
Political candidates should be able to campaign without fear.
Voters should be able to participate without intimidation.
Communities should be able to exercise their democratic rights without violence.
And political differences must be settled at the ballot box — not with threats, bullets or murder.
SSS will continue to monitor developments, investigate information supported by evidence
and educate the public on emerging security threats.
Specialised Security Services invites the public to the Mike Bolhuis Daily Projects WhatsApp Channel.
This channel is important in delivering insights into the latest crime trends, awareness, warnings and the exposure of criminals.
How to Join the WhatsApp Channel:
1. Make sure you have the latest version of WhatsApp on your device.
2. Click on the link below to join the Mike Bolhuis Daily Projects WhatsApp Channel:
3. Follow the prompts to join the channel.
4. Make sure you click on "Follow", then click on the "bell"-icon (🔔)
CONTACT MR MIKE BOLHUIS FOR SAFETY AND SECURITY MEASURES, PROTECTION, OR AN INVESTIGATION IF NEEDED.
ALL INFORMATION RECEIVED WILL BE TREATED IN THE STRICTEST CONFIDENTIALITY AND EVERY IDENTITY WILL BE PROTECTED.
Regards,
Mike Bolhuis
Specialist Investigators into
Serious Violent, Serious Economic Crimes & Serious Cybercrimes
PSIRA Reg. 1590364/421949
Mobile: +27 82 447 6116
E-mail: mike@mikebolhuis.co.za
Fax: 086 585 4924
Follow us on Facebook to view our projects -
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT: All potential clients need to be aware that owing to the nature of our work as specialist investigators there are people who have been caught on the wrong side of the law - who are trying to discredit me - Mike Bolhuis and my organisation Specialised Security Services - to get themselves off the hook. This retaliation happens on social media and creates doubt about our integrity and ability. Doubt created on social media platforms is both unwarranted and untrue. We strongly recommend that you make up your minds concerning me and our organisation only after considering all the factual information - to the exclusion of hearsay and assumptions. Furthermore, you are welcome to address your concerns directly with me should you still be unsatisfied with your conclusions. While the internet provides a lot of valuable information, it is also a platform that distributes a lot of false information. The distribution of false information, fake news, slander and hate speech constitutes a crime that can be prosecuted by law. Your own research discretion and discernment are imperative when choosing what and what not to believe.
STANDARD RULES APPLY: Upon appointment, we require a formal mandate with detailed instructions. Please take note that should you not make use of our services – you may not under any circumstance use my name or the name of my organisation as a means to achieve whatever end.
POPI ACT 4 of 2013 South Africa: Mike Bolhuis' "Specialised Security Services" falls under Section 6 of the act. Read more here: https://mikebh.link/fntdpv
SSS TASK TEAM:
Copyright © 2015- PRESENT | Mike Bolhuis Specialised Security Services | All rights reserved.
Our mailing address is:
Mike Bolhuis Specialised Security Services
PO Box 15075 Lynn East
Pretoria, Gauteng 0039
South Africa
Add us to your address book
THIS PUBLIC DOCUMENT WAS INTENDED TO BE SHARED, PLEASE DO SO.
