PROJECT: SOUTH AFRICA'S ECONOMIC & NATIONAL SECURITY CRISIS
- Isabel Spies
- Sep 29
- 6 min read
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South Africa's economy is trapped in a vicious cycle of persistently low growth and a severe unemployment crisis. Characterised by crumbling infrastructure, high public debt, and critically low investment, the economy is failing to create sufficient jobs for its growing population. This has resulted in an alarmingly high and worsening official unemployment rate, with youth unemployment being particularly catastrophic.
CHRONICALLY LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH:
The South African economy has experienced a prolonged period of stagnation, with growth rates dangerously below the levels required for development and job creation.
PERSISTENTLY LOW GDP (GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT) GROWTH:
The economy has not grown by more than 2% annually since 2013.
The average growth over the past decade has been a mere 0.7%, a stark contrast to the near 5% rates achieved in the 2000s.
Despite a substantial improvement in electricity supply since 2024, growth remained anaemic at only 0.6% for the year.
ROOT CAUSES:
Severe Infrastructure Collapse:
Critical infrastructure for electricity, logistics (rail), and water is rated at an "E" level and deteriorating, creating severe "supply-side blockages."
Crippling Government Debt:
Debt is projected to peak at 75.5% of GDP (potentially nearing 90% with all liabilities included).
High debt service payments are "cannibalising" essential public investments.
Plummeting Investment:
Fixed investment has collapsed to just 15% of GDP, half of the official 30% target.
This is owing to a lack of public funds and critically low private sector business confidence.
Policy Uncertainty:
Policy unpredictability and surprise legislation are cited as major factors damaging investor confidence.
Experts state that the government has effectively "socialised" and budgeted for low growth, indicating a lack of confidence in its own policies.
SEVERE AND WORSENING UNEMPLOYMENT CRISES:
The weak economic performance has directly led to a critical unemployment crisis.
CRITICALLY HIGH OFFICIAL RATE:
The unemployment rate stands at an alarmingly elevated 31.9% (Q4 2024).
JOB CREATION VS. LABOUR FORCE GROWTH:
While the economy has recovered to its pre-pandemic size and has added jobs, the pace of job creation has not kept up with the expanding labour force, leading to a net rise in the number of unemployed people.
CATASTROPHIC YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT:
The situation is drastically worse for young people.
The unemployment rate for those aged 15-24 stands at a staggering 59.6%.
In essence, South Africa is caught in a destructive feedback loop where low economic growth fails to generate jobs,
while infrastructure collapse, high debt, and policy uncertainty prevent the investment needed to stimulate higher growth.
This cycle has normalised a state of economic crisis and resulted in a socio-economic disaster characterised
by one of the highest unemployment rates in the world.
SOURCE AND AUTHOR: THE STATE OF OUR NATIONAL DEFENCE FORCE 2024
Article Title: Falling apart – SA army’s 30 years of decline
Professor Theo Neethling, Department of Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State. Prof. Neethling is a researcher who has studied the SANDF as a foreign policy instrument for almost three decades.
A CAUSE FOR NATIONAL CONCERN:
This report summarises a concerning analysis of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) after 30 years of democracy.
The core finding is that the SANDF is in a state of severe decline, crippled by chronic underfunding and mismanagement.
This has left our nation vulnerable to external threats, unable to effectively support regional peace, and increasingly forced to use its limited resources for internal policing.
Without urgent political will and substantial investment, our national defence force risks becoming irrelevant and unable to fulfil its constitutional mandate to protect South Africa and its people.
MISMATCH BETWEEN EXPECTATIONS AND REALITY:
The SANDF is constitutionally mandated to:
Defend the country against external aggression.
Promote peace and security in Africa.
Support the South African Police Service (SAPS) when required.
However, a massive gap has developed between these expectations and the SANDF's actual budget and capabilities.
Its budget has shrunk to around 1% of GDP, which is far below the global average of 2.2% and utterly insufficient for its tasks.
KEY AREAS OF CRITICAL DECLINE:
AIR FORCE CRISES:
A shocking 85% of aircraft are grounded.
For example, in 2013, only 2 of 26 advanced Gripen fighter jets and 3 of 24 Hawk aircraft were operational.
There are proposals to downgrade the Air Force to a mere "air wing" due to a lack of funds.
NAVY IN DISTRESS:
The navy's primary frigates are all in urgent need of repair.
The submarines from the 1999 arms deal are often unserviceable due to a lack of spare parts.
OPERATIONAL FAILURES:
Deployments, such as the mission in Mozambique, have suffered from poor logistical support and coordination, damaging South Africa's international reputation.
SHIFT TO INTERNAL POLICING:
Due to a collapsing police service, the army is now routinely used for domestic roles it is not designed for, including:
Combating gang violence and illegal mining.
Preventing truck burnings.
Guarding power plants.
Combating cash-in-transit heists.
This further stretches its already thin resources and degrades its core defence capabilities.
ROOT CAUSES:
CHRONIC UNDERFUNDING:
The defence budget has been consistently cut for decades, with a 21% reduction between 2013 and 2023 alone.
LACK OF STRATEGIC CLARITY:
The "secondary" function of promoting African peacekeeping has become the primary function without the necessary additional budget, personnel, or equipment.
ECONOMIC PRESSURE:
The country's broader economic challenges have placed severe strain on all government finances, with defence often being deprioritized.
LEGACY OF THE ARMS DEAL:
The controversial 1999 arms deal, mired in corruption, acquired complex hardware without a sustainable budget for long-term maintenance and spare parts.
IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICANS:
The systematic decline of the SANDF is not just a military issue; it is a direct national security threat to every South African.
An underfunded, underequipped, and overstretched military cannot:
Guarantee the sovereignty of our borders.
Effectively respond to a serious external threat.
Reliably provide support during major internal crises or disasters.
Project South Africa's foreign policy goals effectively and with dignity.
Without substantial political will, a significant increase in budget, and urgent strategic reform,
the SANDF will continue its slide into irrelevance, leaving the nation and its people exposed.
This issue requires public awareness and demand for accountability from national leadership.
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